依托国家重大科技基础设施-地球系统数值模拟装置,自主研发了集多污染类型和多尺度为一体的新一代公里级的大气环境溯源预报系统,创新了数值模式框架、同化反演、溯源追踪和动态调控等溯源预报的关键技术,预报沙尘、酸沉降、可吸入颗粒物 PM10、细颗粒物 PM2.5、臭氧等我国主要污染类型,具备季节尺度(未来三个月)空气质量变化趋势预测以及未来7天空气质量预报与污染溯源能力,溯源精度到工厂级,预报精度全国达到3公里和1小时,中东部地区达到1公里和1小时,大气环境容载量和减污降碳量的核算精度达城市级和周分辨率。系统为北京冬奥会、杭州亚运会等重大活动空气质量保障的精准应对提供了重要的技术支撑,未来可为我国构建减污降碳一体谋划、一体部署、一体推进、一体考核的制度机制提供关键核心技术。
图 1 城市尺度大气污染动态溯源结果
图 2 重大活动期间多时间尺度空气质量预测预报示例(北京)
图3 反演估计的北京冬奥会期间京津冀及周边氮氧化物(NOx)排放强度变化
相关成果:
Huangjian Wu, Lei Kong, Xiao Tang, Lili Zhu, Jiang Zhu, Zifa Wang. Air Quality Forecasting with Inversely Updated Emissions for China. Environmental Science & Technology Letters, 2024, 10(8), 655-661. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.3c00266.
Wenyi Yang, Qizhong Wu, Jie Li, Xueshun Chen, Huiyun Du, Zhe Wang, Dongqing Li, Xiao Tang, Yele Sun, Zhilan Ye Xiaole Pan, Baozhu Ge, Huansheng Chen, Lianfang Wei, Tao Wang, Wei Wang, Lili Zhu, Jinyuan Xin, Zifa Wang. Predictions of air quality and challenges for eliminating air pollution during the 2022 Olympic Winter Games. Atmospheric Research, 2024, 300, 107225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107225.
Jiali Xie, Xiao Tang, Fei Zheng, Xidong Wang, Ning Ding, Yating Song, Hongyan Luo, Huangjian Wu, Lei Kong, Jiang Zhu, Zifa Wang. Improvement of the ozone forecast over Beijing through combining the chemical transport model with multiple machine learning methods. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 2024, 15, 102184.
联系我们:
王自发,zifawang@mail.iap.ac.cn;
唐晓,tangxiao@mail.iap.ac.cn